“经济学系列讲座”第十三期：房地产泡沫与正负反馈效应—基于实验经济学的视角

【主讲人介绍】包特，现任新加坡南洋理工大学经济学助理教授。

2006年获复旦大学经济学学士，2007年获香港科技大学经济学硕士，2012年获阿姆斯特丹大学经济学博士。

研究兴趣为实验经济学，行为金融，合约理论和房地产经济学。研究论文发表于Economic Journal, European Economic Review, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control等国际期刊，和《经济研究》、《世界经济》等国内期刊。曾获Emerald出版集团年度“杰出图书章节贡献奖”和钱学森城市学金奖提名奖。

【讲座内容】

Asset markets are characterized by positive feedback through speculative demand. But housing markets distinguish themselves from other asset markets in that the supply of housing is endogenous, and adds negative feedback to the market. We design an experimental housing market and study how the strength of the negative feedback, i.e., the supply elasticity, affects market stability. In the absence of endogenous housing supply, the experimental housing markets exhibit large bubbles and crashes because speculators coordinate on trend-following expectations. When the positive feedback through speculative demand is offset by the negative feedback of elastic housing supply the market stabilizes and prices converge to fundamental value. Individual expectations and aggregate market outcome are well described by a behavioral heuristics switching model. Our results suggest that negative feedback policies may stabilize speculative asset bubbles.