Asia Society ChinaFile Conversation: 张中祥 -- Will China Take the Lead on Climate Change?

Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the U.S. presidential election caused a stir in Marrakech and created uncertainty over what policy decisions he might make, including whether the U.S. might withdraw from the Paris Agreement. This also raised the potential role of China. In my view, there will be restrictions put on the size and speed of the Trump retreat. In the meantime, China should lead the global community in keeping collective pressure on the U.S., restricting potential damage from a U.S. exit to a minimum, but also should not go beyond its capability and capacity.

On the campaign trail, Trump promised to cancel the U.S. involvement in the Paris Agreement and cut the U.S. international obligation to provide climate-related funding. However, past evidence shows that the U.S. president-elect doesn’t always stick to promises made as a candidate. Whether this applies to Trump remains open, given that by any standard he is completely different from any previous U.S. president.

According to Article 28 of the Paris Agreement, it would take four years for any country to exit the United Nations deal. Even if the U.S. decides to withdraw from the Paris accord, it would be 2020 before it got what it wanted. If it exits, the U.S. would pay high political and diplomatic costs. The U.S. could be confronted with potential carbon tariffs, on the same grounds that the U.S. used them in threat to other counties for not taking climate change reduction steps comparable to its own. The plausible option is that the U.S. remains a party to the Paris Agreement, but waters down some initiatives and efforts undertaken under the Obama administration.

To what extent the U.S. could retreat remains to be seen. On the one hand, in a bid to make the U.S. fully energy independent, Trump might support renewable energy, along with sources such as fossil fuels. On the other hand, Trump lost the popular vote and a large number of states, counties, and cities across the U.S. have been taking great actions and making great effort toward climate mitigation through the wide use of renewables, even in those states where Trump won. All these may restrict the size and speed of the Trump retreat.

In the meantime, China and the E.U. should lead the global community in keeping collective pressure on the U.S.. In Paris, China showed itself both as a great collaborator and a leader in global governance. With the potential vacuum left by a U.S. retreat, China should grab with this opportunity and strengthen its role in global governance of climate change. Meanwhile, it should avoid taking too much responsibilities that go beyond its capability and capacity.

ZhongXiang Zhangis a distinguished university professor at Tianjin University's College of Management and Economics.

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